Truck Decarbonisation Technology Matrix (Part 5)

Truck Decarbonisation Technology Matrix (Part 5)

Battery Electric Trucks

The 5th article in a series looking into the proposed solutions to decarbonise heavy trucks. Battery Electric Vehicles or BEVs are the topic of discussion.

A Perfect Future

In the future the majority of road freight will be transported in vehicles utilising highly efficient electric motors powered by 100% renewable energy. This renewable energy will be stored in compact batteries which will have been, at least in part, built from raw materials harvested from recycled batteries. Ideally these batteries will allow any operation to work for at least four and a half hours in the harshest of conditions and terrains. The battery should accommodate mega-watt charging rates and allow 100% charging in under 30 minutes and chargers will need to be available anywhere a truck may find itself.

Additionally, the steel used to construct the vehicle would be zero carbon steel (not steel without carbon as that is iron and is far to brittle to build trucks with) which has been made without the use of carbon i.e. manufactured using green hydrogen to provide the heat required rather than hydrogen which is produced from methane which is used today in over 99% of the worlds steel and is a major contributor to green-house gas (ghg) emissions. Every other component should be made from recycled materials and should too be recyclable.

If the above conditions can be met and the cost of purchase and operation is roughly comparable to today’s trucks, then the transition to net zero will be relatively straightforward and is just a matter of time.

Bridges to Cross

Referring to my Matrix, there is a way to go before the above nirvana is reached. There are 3 areas where the operation of an electric truck is currently advantageous today; tailpipe emissions, CO2 emissions and fuel cost. There is some way to go before BEVs can be viewed as an advantage in other categories such as vehicle cost, infrastructure, payload, range and availability.

Tailpipe emissions

This is the clear and obvious benefit of not using combustion to generate power, with no tailpipe to worry about, tailpipe emissions are zero – no carbon, no poisonous gasses.

CO2 emissions

Renewable energy sources are growing year on year, the UK currently generates around a quarter of it’s electricity from renewables. Generating renewable electricity is the easy part though, storing it and balancing supply and demand through the grid is where the difficulty lies. The target date for 100% renewable electricity in the UK is 2035, whenever this point is reached in practice will be the day BEVs are, theoretically at least, zero emission vehicles. However, even at today’s renewables levels electric trucks still generate far less lifecycle CO2 than fossil fuelled vehicles, this is partly down to the increased energy efficiency of electric motors (around 90%) compared to diesel engines (around 40%). This is true even when the emissions from production and disposal are included in the calculation.

Fuel cost

Even in the current volatile energy market the energy required to power an electric truck cost much less than that of a diesel truck. This is down to increased driveline efficiency combined with the lower cost of electricity compared to diesel. Electricity does not include fuel duty like diesel although it includes VAT at 20% (which is unclaimable).

The fuel duty revenue, currently collected from fossil fuels, will decline over time as transport shifts to renewable energy. Road user charging is likely to be introduced to make up for these losses in the longer term, however these will apply to diesel vehicles too.

This reduced ‘fuelling’ cost can sometimes offset the additional capital cost of the vehicle, although this very much depends on the operation.

Vehicle cost

Today electric trucks cost around 3 times more than diesel trucks, they are not 3 times more expensive to produce from a materials or labour perspective although they are more expensive to a large degree. Part of the increased cost is due to the battery and motor technology which is not built ‘in house’ like a diesel engine would be and part is due to lower volumes and less economies of scale. There will also be a premium from suppliers who want to amortise their development costs quicker in the early adopter market (marketing 101). Prices should soften over the long term but will unlikely always carry a heavy premium.

The total cost of ownership (TCO) which considers purchase cost, fuel cost, maintenance cost and depreciation needs to work to drive mass adoption of electric vehicles. However, the fundamental that TCO comparisons can overlook is the increased capital cost comes on day one. Interest rates are rising, funding an asset that is two or three times more expensive than a diesel truck will put stains on all but the strongest of credit lines.

Infrastructure

Depot based A/C charging overnight will be the most economical way to charge an electric truck, unfortunately it will be hard to only depot charge as the vehicle’s range will unlikely be high enough for a day’s work, on-the-road D/C charging will therefore necessary for most operations. D/C chargers are much faster than A/C charges, they are also more expensive to buy and more expensive to install.

Megawatt chargers and vehicles capable of taking this current will be required and these are just beginning to be announced with standards and compatibility also emerging. Megawatt charging capability will be fundamental to minimise disruptions to the ways of working we are familiar with today, the chargers and vehicles however are only half the story, electrical capacity to the site in question to power the number of chargers simultaneously will almost certainly need to be upgraded and safety procedures and equipment will also be required to manage the heat, the high current and the surprising size of the cables required to deliver this much power so quickly.

The last 3 negatives on the matrix are availability, range and payload:

Availability

Looking at the range of electric trucks offered by manufacturers today, we have 4x2 and 6x2 distribution rigids and 2 axle distribution artics. Many models and options are still limited, some models such as 8x4s will likely only be available in the tridem format due to battery size making the more traditional configuration with twin steer axles at the front impossible.

Over time more and more models will become available, however, the most common vehicle in the UK today, the 6x2 (midlift or twin-steer), poses a big problem for designers as the chassis space for batteries is extremely limited, especially where discharge equipment is also required such as a wet kit. The UK 6x2 artic will likely be only possible with some breakthrough in battery technology or as an extremely limited range model.

Range

Vehicle range will improve over time as battery technology develops and will also be mitigated to a degree with a dense network of megawatt chargers. It is unlikely that vehicles capable of tramping multi days on a single fill will ever be possible with batteries as the main sources of energy. It may be necessary for some operations to reconsider their locations and may require other to build new RDCs or depots to match the service levels we have today. Today BEVs have a range typically around 30% of that of an equivalent diesel vehicle.

Payload

For vehicles operating at weights below 44 tonnes a dispensation allowing increased weights is applicable to compensate for the additional weight of the vehicle to some degree, however for 44 tonners no such dispensation is possible as the limit is based on road strength so is unlikely to be changed. With BEVs empty vehicles weigh as much as full vehicles as the fuel is not consumed during the journey in the same way as diesel is. Perhaps the 44 tonne on 6 axles UK specific legislation will need to be reviewed at some stage but for now reduced payload seems to be an inevitability, this will impact bulk hauliers and may have an impact on downstream processes that have grown up around current vehicle capabilities. Payload reduction, especially at 44 tonnes is something we are going to have to accept for BEVs.

Summary

I don’t doubt that BEVs will be the dominant solution for heavy trucks in time. It’s clear that there is still some way to go before they are practical and affordable for anyone but the biggest or most profitable of operations today and it is also clear to see that sectors outside of distribution will take longer and likely suffer more compromises.

Certain sectors like heavy haulage (STGO), mobile plant and operations in remote locations require significant further development in battery technology if they are ever to work or they will need some kind of exemption to continue to use liquid fuels.

As with any future ambition there are still some unknowables in our path. For example we don’t yet know if battery development will plateau and the current progress towards smaller, lighter and higher capacities will hit diminishing returns before a practical 6x2 artic is possible.

Running an electric truck or two in a fleet today is possible with some compromises, running even a small fleet is very much more complex and expensive and likely not possible until some of the above obstacles are overcome.

The continued development of electric motors and batteries also helps to make other solutions like hydrogen fuel cells or catenary a possibility, but more on those in future articles.

I always assert that to maximise CO2 reduction solutions that work need to be used as soon as they are available – perfect should not be an obstacle to good in the decarbonisation of transport.

Tim Campbell

MD at Campbells Consultancy - helping commercial vehicle fleets make the transition from diesel to electric/hydrogen fuel cell.

1y

Well done Darren Newman - also good to meet up at Truck Expo last week 👍

Andrew Scott

Optimising today and planning tomorrow.

1y

Thanks for the articles Darren Newman. Each a helpful insight to a challenging subject,

Darren, You wrote: “It's a big subject and I've tried to keep it brief and without too much technical discussion.” I think you’ve achieved that objective whilst keeping the articles both interesting and relevant.

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